Wind Power Forecast Based on ARX Model with Multi Time Scale Parameter

19721212

Abstract:
This paper reports a wind power forecast model based on ARX model based on multi timescale model to accurately predict the wind power including the effect of operating condition. A wind power forecast model based on ARX model with multi timescale parameter was developed and the improvement of the prediction accuracy was verified by comparing the measurement data and conventional approach. Following results were obtained. 1) Proposed multi time scale parameter model enabled to predict the operating condition of the wind farm and the prediction accuracy increased compared to the conventional model. 2) The optimum time scales exist for the estimation of different model parameters and for the estimation of the parameter which represents the operational condition is much shorter than the one used for the estimation of the power curve.